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Prediction for CME (2026-08-03T03:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-03T03:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47939/-1
CME Note: CME observed best to the E in STEREO A COR2. Also observed faintly to the W in SOHO LASCO C2 until a downlink gap begins at 2026-08-03T05:00Z, and faintly to the W in GOES CCOR-1. The source may be gradual field line brightening/opening from AR 14501 (S07W43) lasting approximately 2026-08-03T00:00Z to 2026-08-03T04:00Z in SDO AIA 193/211, likely deflected northeastward with proximity to the large southern polar coronal hole seen facing STEREO A EUVI.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-07T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47941/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-03T03:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=22.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=335.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2026-08-03T13:16Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-07T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-05T15:48Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T13:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-06T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 85.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-03T13:29Z

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